Forecasting the Post-COVID Path of the Economy
After an incredibly sharp plunge in GDP in the second quarter due to the coronavirus pandemic and associated shutdowns, leading to a 5.7% decline in GDP for the full year, bank economists expect the U.S. economy to rebound in the third and fourth quarters. But there's a lot of noise in the details. On the latest bonus episode of the ABA Banking Journal Podcast — sponsored by ProfitStars, a division of Jack Henry and Associates — ABA Economic Advisory Committee Chairman Catherine Mann, global chief economist at Citi, breaks down the committee's median forecasts, including components of GDP like investment that are projected to continue contracting into the third quarter. She also discusses the forecasted path of unemployment, interest rates and consumer spending, as well as downside risks from a second wave of COVID-19 later this year.