230 - Biofuel displacing diesel | Kunal Patel from the Dallas Fed
Biofuels are displacing petroleum-based distillate fuel oil consumption on the West Coasthttps://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=57040
- renewable diesel = diesel made from
- biodiesel used as well
- petroleum distillate consumption down on west coast in 2022 but biodiesel consumption up
- unique to west coast
NATIONAL AVERAGE SEES LITTLE CHANGE, GASOLINE DEMAND PLUMMETS AFTER SURGING FOR JULY 4
- Gasoline demand soared on July 4 but declined since then
- Gasoline prices went down going into July 4 but have basically remained stable since then
- "Implied gasoline demand, a proxy for retail demand, unsurprisingly jumped to 9.6 million barrels as motorists hit the road for July 4."
- "gasoline inventories fell 2.5 million barrels"
Oil dips on Chinese and U.S. data, but OPEC+ cuts limit fall
- Lots of Chinese data coming out later this week
- Will the market tighten in H2 2023? China's economy will turn around at some point, but will it be this year?
- China's trade with US and Europe is down but is Russia really a replacement? Depends who you ask.
Iran Seizes Commercial Tanker in Persian Gulf
https://www.voanews.com/a/iran-seizes-commercial-tanker-in-persian-gulf-/7170938.html
- Military incident in Persian Gulf including US Navy firing on Iranian vessels did not cause oil market to jump at all
- Do people not care about tanker security in the Persian Gulf anymore?
Special Guest Kunal Patel from the Dallas Fed
Q2 Energy Survey
https://www.dallasfed.org/research/surveys/des/2023/2302
- price forecasts of producers are different from other industries. Think price will be in $80s by end of year
- credit conditions: 24% of small E&Ps said credit conditions are having a major impact. Large E&Ps have more sources of credit.
- costs in the oilfield: the larger the firm you are, the more pricing power you have, both with services and materials
- larger firms can take advantage to get lower costs but smaller E&Ps are still facing higher costs
- potential decreases in cost in H2
- Contracts with rigs and suppliers are the issue - if firms locked in contracts in 2022 then prices are higher even if prices are going down now. When the contracts were signed is driving the costs
- Oil producers in the US think that global oil consumption has slightly underperformed this year what they expected at the start of the year.
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