Marcus Strategy Wednesday 27th May 2020

Banks are flying again as the Morrison speech highlights that gloomy economic forecasts, and the Jobkeeper forecast budget hole, had been based on erroneous medical advice in February predicting lockdowns to September. As we come out three months earlier than that it means the Government is better off than expected, has the ability to stimulate certain sectors more than expected and that all the economic forecasts are too gloomy. Brokers are upgrading GDP forecasts this morning. At the same time, for the banks, it looks like they too have over-provisioned for the economic damage to their customer base and have raised more capital than they need and over-provisioned for bad debts, provisions that will now flatter future results as they are added back. The two day Bank Bounce adds to the Recovery bounce elsewhere in the market, particularity in Travel and REITs. Meanwhile Technology and Healthcare are almost back to their highs. Happy Days. 

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