The Epistemology of Investing: A Near Insurmountable Challenge | EP133

Why genuine knowledge building and the ability to learn effectively in investing is difficult, and how we try to work around those challenges.

 

Highlights:

  • Context setting: What does “epistemology” mean, and why did we get excited about it in relation to investing?
  • What is knowledge? How do you create it?
    • The two founding blocks: Inductive and deductive reasoning
    • A contrast in knowledge approaches and evolutions—e.g., the airline industry vs. astrology
  • The resonance behind the learning, trying to “win by not losing”
  • How we aim to build knowledge by “closing the loop” on inductive learning:
    • Journaling, timestamping, governance (and the Mawer Lab)
    • Forecasting tournaments and “adjacent games”
    • Also: Learning isn’t cost free
  • Drawing from the wisdom of crowds—what conditions help foster learning within an organization?
  • ChatGPT and AI: Potential implications for the learning process in investing

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