The Epistemology of Investing: A Near Insurmountable Challenge | EP133
Why genuine knowledge building and the ability to learn effectively in investing is difficult, and how we try to work around those challenges.
Highlights:
- Context setting: What does “epistemology” mean, and why did we get excited about it in relation to investing?
- What is knowledge? How do you create it?
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- The two founding blocks: Inductive and deductive reasoning
- A contrast in knowledge approaches and evolutions—e.g., the airline industry vs. astrology
- The resonance behind the learning, trying to “win by not losing”
- How we aim to build knowledge by “closing the loop” on inductive learning:
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- Journaling, timestamping, governance (and the Mawer Lab)
- Forecasting tournaments and “adjacent games”
- Also: Learning isn’t cost free
- Drawing from the wisdom of crowds—what conditions help foster learning within an organization?
- ChatGPT and AI: Potential implications for the learning process in investing