lystn

Hey everyone, Kirk here again from optionalpha.com and welcome back to the daily call. On today’s daily call, I want to talk about the citizen’s fallacy behind the 21 trillion in national debt. Why do I call this the citizen’s fallacy? Because I think that honestly, most people… I don’t care what political spectrum you lean towards, left, right, middle, it doesn’t really matter. I think most people have no idea how much a country (the United States because that’s where we’re recording) is in debt. We have a national debt that if it hasn't been eclipsed by time that this podcast goes out, it’ll probably will very, very shortly. But it’s 21 trillion in national debt which again, trillions and billions, people throw around randomly now. I think people are numb to this. I don't think that people understand really the difference between a trillion and a billion other than the T or the B really at the beginning. But I think that most smart people, if you rationally think about how much debt we are racking up, know that it can’t end without either extreme pain or something bad happening. That’s really what it comes down to. Something has to give. You can’t unwind a national debt this big in any reasonable timeframe without an extreme amount of pain or something else giving. What I mean by this is either people are going to pay more taxes or we’re going to see the power or value of our dollar completely collapse or go away or decrease dramatically. I think this is going to have a big impact when it all starts to unfold on the markets. The crazy thing for me… I'm thinking about this from the outside. Obviously, I have no insight or knowledge on anything. I’m just a regular guy trading at home and seeing this probably like you guys are, guys or girls. What I see is I see insanely smart people who are running most of the Federal Reserve boards, whether it's here in the United States, abroad, in Europe. These are really smart people who are riding these boards and it's incredible to me that they don't call this out. But again, that’s not their job to create panic in the markets. I would believe that most of these people know that some sort of collapse or pain is going to happen in the future, wherever that pain comes from, that you can’t unwind this without some sort of pain. Again, it’s not their job to create market fear or turmoil, etcetera. They have to keep the market stable, so they just choose to basically play the fifth and not say anything about it. But they know. They’re all smart people. They’re all rational people. They have insanely high degrees from prestigious universities and have worked at great banks and companies, etcetera. They know the score. Again, I think this is the citizen’s fallacy because most citizens believe that nothing bad will ever happen. We’ve had this debt forever and maybe we increase the debt and it’s 50 trillion and it just continues to go higher. I don’t know what the stopping point is. I don’t know where it ends. But at some point, people are going to realize that we have no ability to repay our debts, that the only way we repay our debts is through printing. Once they start realizing that, I think our dollar goes down dramatically. I don’t know how we should play this, so I say this openly and honestly. I don’t know what the play is here, other than just realizing that it’s coming and that something is going to move. Just have your ducks in a row really. It’s what it comes down to. Don’t be blind to this. Again, I don’t care what political spectrum you’re on. I think everyone agrees that it’s a huge problem. It’s just we keep kicking the can further and further down the road. Hopefully this helps out. Again, not your typical options trading talk necessarily, but I think it’s really important. Please share it with people that you know or friends or family who maybe haven’t thought about it in a little bit and as always, happy trading!