Episode 28: #hottakeover-your-commute
https://youtu.be/F-ItyzuKyQo Excellent new #hottake from DRW, once again in both audio and visual formats As mentioned on the podcast and on LinkedIn posts, David was asked to provide members of the Executive Branch a whitepaper on Governmental Responses to the Domestic Production Crisis. In short, the white paper discusses what steps to take, with the keys being: A) it rebalances the market in this crazy time and protects companies from a full unstructured collapse and chapter 11 B) if adopted would immediately retaliate (ban) flaring which would be environmentally better and aid in rebalancing the market C) lower capital activity in the US to a sustainable level and aid the transition of energy policy D) support workers who are currently and will be displaced out of the industry until the economy stabilized post COVID-19 E) uses tariffs on imported oil to finance and back the plan, supporting America’s energy independence go forward. White Paper follows: White Paper Stabilization of the United States Oil a Gas Industry March 16, 2020 Purpose The purpose of this paper is to propose necessary federal action to stabilize the United States oil and gas industry, protect domestic energy independence, and avoid widespread economic hardship which will result from the collapse of one of America’s most prominent industries. Executive Summary of Key Actions Proposed: Shut in production on all federal onshore and offshore leases, impacting an estimated 2.8 million barrels per day of supply.Provide covenant guarantees to those companies affected for 180 days for the COVID-19 crisis to passImplement a $30/bbl tariff on all imported crude, excluding Canada. Part of this tariff would be used to support hourly, field, oilfield service and midstream staff impacted by the reduction in activity.Cut U.S. crude exports to 0 until the US SPR is refilled. Background: The importance of the oil and gas industry to America cannot be understated. The sector contributes significantly to the American economy through employment, tax revenue, and support of consumer economy. For example, according to the 2019 U.S. Energy and Employment report, the fuels sector, which includes oil and gas exploration and extraction, employed 1,127,600 workers[1] and under President Trump’s energy agenda, total energy production across various sources reached a record high in 2018[2]. Increased domestic production and exports of crude oil made significant contribution to the flourishing economy under President Donald Trump. As a result of vulnerable balance sheets, perilous declines in demand due to the COVID-19 pandemic, and international price instability the industry is now in a state of emergent decline. Reduced production by OPEC and Russia enabled the U.S. to grow production to a record of 12.863 million barrels per day in 2019[3] at a $50-$55/bbl price environment. Recently, Russia rejected the OPEC recommended continuation of production cuts from member countries. Saudia Arabia responded with a threat to increase production and signaled the initiation of a price war. The threat of a price war and increased global crude supply tumbled Brent crude 24.7% to $34.10/bbl the following day, since which markets have continued to fall. Coupled with the threat of a global price war, prices have been crippled by the threat of COVID-19 and a sharp decrease in global demand. Globally, 63.7% of oil consumption[4] is from transportation of people and goods. If we estimated that instantaneously in early February, Chinese demand for oil was down 22%[5], and that was before all the international flight restrictions and lock downs, it is fair to estimate global demand for transportation will be down 30%, which equates to 20 million barrels per day. With global supplies at 100 million barrels per day (mmbo/d), excluding any actual increase in production by Saudi Arabia and Russia,